"IF" Bets and Reverses
I mentioned last week, that when your book offers "if/reverses," it is possible to play those rather than parlays. Some of you may not discover how to bet an "if/reverse." A complete explanation and comparison of "if" bets, "if/reverses," and parlays follows, combined with the situations in which each is best..
An "if" bet is exactly what it sounds like. You bet Team A and IF it wins then you place the same amount on Team B. A parlay with two games going off at different times is a type of "if" bet where you bet on the initial team, and when it wins you bet double on the next team. With a genuine "if" bet, instead of betting double on the next team, you bet the same amount on the next team.
You can avoid two calls to the bookmaker and lock in the current line on a later game by telling your bookmaker you intend to make an "if" bet. "If" bets can also be made on two games kicking off simultaneously. The bookmaker will wait until the first game has ended. If the first game wins, he will put an equal amount on the next game even though it was already played.
Although an "if" bet is actually two straight bets at normal vig, you cannot decide later that so long as want the second bet. Once you make an "if" bet, the next bet can't be cancelled, even if the next game has not gone off yet. If the initial game wins, you will have action on the next game. For that reason, there is less control over an "if" bet than over two straight bets. When lô đề uy tín nhất hiện nay without a doubt overlap in time, however, the only way to bet one only if another wins is by placing an "if" bet. Of course, when two games overlap in time, cancellation of the next game bet isn't an issue. It ought to be noted, that when both games start at differing times, most books will not allow you to complete the next game later. You must designate both teams once you make the bet.
You possibly can make an "if" bet by saying to the bookmaker, "I want to make an 'if' bet," and, "Give me Team A IF Team B for $100." Giving your bookmaker that instruction would be the same as betting $110 to win $100 on Team A, and, only if Team A wins, betting another $110 to win $100 on Team B.
If the initial team in the "if" bet loses, there is no bet on the next team. No matter whether the next team wins of loses, your total loss on the "if" bet will be $110 once you lose on the first team. If the first team wins, however, you would have a bet of $110 to win $100 going on the second team. In that case, if the second team loses, your total loss will be just the $10 of vig on the split of the two teams. If both games win, you would win $100 on Team A and $100 on Team B, for a total win of $200. Thus, the utmost loss on an "if" would be $110, and the utmost win will be $200. That is balanced by the disadvantage of losing the entire $110, instead of just $10 of vig, each and every time the teams split with the initial team in the bet losing.
As you can see, it matters a great deal which game you put first in an "if" bet. In the event that you put the loser first in a split, then you lose your full bet. If you split however the loser may be the second team in the bet, then you only lose the vig.
Bettors soon discovered that the way to avoid the uncertainty caused by the order of wins and loses is to make two "if" bets putting each team first. Rather than betting $110 on " Team A if Team B," you would bet just $55 on " Team A if Team B." and create a second "if" bet reversing the order of the teams for another $55. The second bet would put Team B first and Team Another. This kind of double bet, reversing the order of the same two teams, is called an "if/reverse" or sometimes only a "reverse."
A "reverse" is two separate "if" bets:
Team A if Team B for $55 to win $50; and
Team B if Team A for $55 to win $50.
You don't have to state both bets. You only tell the clerk you want to bet a "reverse," the two teams, and the amount.
If both teams win, the result would be the same as if you played a single "if" bet for $100. You win $50 on Team A in the initial "if bet, and $50 on Team B, for a complete win of $100. In the next "if" bet, you win $50 on Team B, and then $50 on Team A, for a complete win of $100. The two "if" bets together create a total win of $200 when both teams win.
If both teams lose, the effect would also be the same as if you played an individual "if" bet for $100. Team A's loss would cost you $55 in the first "if" combination, and nothing would go onto Team B. In the second combination, Team B's loss would set you back $55 and nothing would go onto to Team A. You would lose $55 on each of the bets for a total maximum lack of $110 whenever both teams lose.
The difference occurs when the teams split. Instead of losing $110 once the first team loses and the next wins, and $10 when the first team wins but the second loses, in the reverse you'll lose $60 on a split no matter which team wins and which loses. It computes this way. If Team A loses you will lose $55 on the initial combination, and have nothing going on the winning Team B. In the next combination, you'll win $50 on Team B, and have action on Team A for a $55 loss, resulting in a net loss on the next mix of $5 vig. The increased loss of $55 on the first "if" bet and $5 on the next "if" bet gives you a combined lack of $60 on the "reverse." When Team B loses, you'll lose the $5 vig on the first combination and the $55 on the second combination for the same $60 on the split..
We've accomplished this smaller loss of $60 instead of $110 once the first team loses with no decrease in the win when both teams win. In both single $110 "if" bet and both reversed "if" bets for $55, the win is $200 when both teams cover the spread. The bookmakers would never put themselves at that type of disadvantage, however. The gain of $50 whenever Team A loses is fully offset by the extra $50 loss ($60 rather than $10) whenever Team B is the loser. Thus, the "reverse" doesn't actually save us hardly any money, but it does have the advantage of making the risk more predictable, and preventing the worry as to which team to place first in the "if" bet.
(What follows is an advanced discussion of betting technique. If charts and explanations provide you with a headache, skip them and simply write down the guidelines. I'll summarize the rules in an an easy task to copy list in my next article.)
As with parlays, the general rule regarding "if" bets is:
DON'T, when you can win more than 52.5% or more of your games. If you cannot consistently achieve a winning percentage, however, making "if" bets whenever you bet two teams can save you money.
For the winning bettor, the "if" bet adds an element of luck to your betting equation that doesn't belong there. If two games are worth betting, then they should both be bet. Betting on one should not be made dependent on whether you win another. Alternatively, for the bettor who has a negative expectation, the "if" bet will prevent him from betting on the second team whenever the first team loses. By preventing some bets, the "if" bet saves the negative expectation bettor some vig.
The $10 savings for the "if" bettor results from the fact that he is not betting the second game when both lose. Compared to the straight bettor, the "if" bettor has an additional cost of $100 when Team A loses and Team B wins, but he saves $110 when Team A and Team B both lose.
In summary, anything that keeps the loser from betting more games is good. "If" bets decrease the number of games that the loser bets.
The rule for the winning bettor is exactly opposite. Whatever keeps the winning bettor from betting more games is bad, and for that reason "if" bets will cost the winning handicapper money. Once the winning bettor plays fewer games, he has fewer winners. Remember that the next time someone lets you know that the best way to win is to bet fewer games. A smart winner never wants to bet fewer games. Since "if/reverses" work out a similar as "if" bets, they both place the winner at an equal disadvantage.
Exceptions to the Rule - Whenever a Winner Should Bet Parlays and "IF's"
As with all rules, you can find exceptions. "If" bets and parlays should be made by a winner with a confident expectation in only two circumstances::
When there is no other choice and he must bet either an "if/reverse," a parlay, or perhaps a teaser; or
When betting co-dependent propositions.
The only time I can think of that you have no other choice is if you are the very best man at your friend's wedding, you are waiting to walk down the aisle, your laptop looked ridiculous in the pocket of one's tux and that means you left it in the car, you only bet offshore in a deposit account without credit line, the book includes a $50 minimum phone bet, you prefer two games which overlap with time, you pull out your trusty cell 5 minutes before kickoff and 45 seconds before you need to walk to the alter with some beastly bride's maid in a frilly purple dress on your own arm, you make an effort to make two $55 bets and suddenly realize you only have $75 in your account.
As the old philosopher used to state, "Is that what's troubling you, bucky?" If so, hold your head up high, put a smile on your face, look for the silver lining, and create a $50 "if" bet on your two teams. Needless to say you could bet a parlay, but as you will see below, the "if/reverse" is an effective replacement for the parlay in case you are winner.
For the winner, the very best method is straight betting. In the case of co-dependent bets, however, as already discussed, there exists a huge advantage to betting combinations. With a parlay, the bettor is getting the benefit of increased parlay odds of 13-5 on combined bets which have greater than the normal expectation of winning. Since, by definition, co-dependent bets must always be contained within exactly the same game, they must be produced as "if" bets. With a co-dependent bet our advantage originates from the truth that we make the second bet only IF one of many propositions wins.
It could do us no good to straight bet $110 each on the favorite and the underdog and $110 each on the over and the under. We would simply lose the vig no matter how usually the favorite and over or the underdog and under combinations won. As we've seen, if we play two out of 4 possible results in two parlays of the favorite and over and the underdog and under, we can net a $160 win when among our combinations will come in. When to find the parlay or the "reverse" when making co-dependent combinations is discussed below.
Choosing Between "IF" Bets and Parlays
Based on a $110 parlay, which we'll use for the purpose of consistent comparisons, our net parlay win when among our combinations hits is $176 (the $286 win on the winning parlay minus the $110 loss on the losing parlay). In a $110 "reverse" bet our net win will be $180 every time among our combinations hits (the $400 win on the winning if/reverse without the $220 loss on the losing if/reverse).
When a split occurs and the under comes in with the favorite, or over comes in with the underdog, the parlay will lose $110 while the reverse loses $120. Thus, the "reverse" has a $4 advantage on the winning side, and the parlay has a $10 advantage on the losing end. Obviously, again, in a 50-50 situation the parlay would be better.
With co-dependent side and total bets, however, we are not in a 50-50 situation. If the favorite covers the high spread, it is much more likely that the overall game will go over the comparatively low total, and if the favorite fails to cover the high spread, it is more likely that the overall game will beneath the total. As we have already seen, once you have a confident expectation the "if/reverse" is really a superior bet to the parlay. The actual probability of a win on our co-dependent side and total bets depends upon how close the lines on the side and total are one to the other, but the fact that they're co-dependent gives us a positive expectation.
The point at which the "if/reverse" becomes a better bet than the parlay when making our two co-dependent is really a 72% win-rate. This is simply not as outrageous a win-rate since it sounds. When making two combinations, you have two chances to win. You merely need to win one out of the two. Each one of the combinations comes with an independent positive expectation. If we assume the opportunity of either the favorite or the underdog winning is 100% (obviously one or another must win) then all we need is really a 72% probability that whenever, for example, Boston College -38 � scores enough to win by 39 points that the overall game will go over the full total 53 � at the very least 72% of that time period as a co-dependent bet. If Ball State scores even one TD, then we are only � point from a win. A BC cover can lead to an over 72% of that time period isn't an unreasonable assumption beneath the circumstances.
As compared to a parlay at a 72% win-rate, our two "if/reverse" bets will win a supplementary $4 seventy-two times, for a complete increased win of $4 x 72 = $288. Betting "if/reverses" will cause us to lose a supplementary $10 the 28 times that the outcomes split for a complete increased loss of $280. Obviously, at a win rate of 72% the difference is slight.
Rule: At win percentages below 72% use parlays, and at win-rates of 72% or above use "if/reverses."