"IF" Bets and Reverses
I mentioned last week, that when your book offers "if/reverses," you can play those instead of parlays. Some of you might not learn how to bet an "if/reverse." A complete explanation and comparison of "if" bets, "if/reverses," and parlays follows, along with the situations where each is best..
An "if" bet is strictly what it appears like. Without a doubt Team A and IF it wins then you place the same amount on Team B. A parlay with two games going off at differing times is a kind of "if" bet in which you bet on the initial team, and when it wins you bet double on the next team. With a true "if" bet, instead of betting double on the next team, you bet an equal amount on the next team.
It is possible to avoid two calls to the bookmaker and lock in the current line on a later game by telling your bookmaker you need to make an "if" bet. "If" bets can also be made on two games kicking off concurrently. The bookmaker will wait until the first game is over. If the first game wins, he will put an equal amount on the second game even though it has already been played.
Although an "if" bet is really two straight bets at normal vig, you cannot decide later that you no longer want the next bet. Once mocbai team make an "if" bet, the second bet cannot be cancelled, even if the second game has not gone off yet. If the first game wins, you should have action on the second game. For that reason, there is less control over an "if" bet than over two straight bets. When the two games you bet overlap in time, however, the only method to bet one only when another wins is by placing an "if" bet. Needless to say, when two games overlap with time, cancellation of the next game bet isn't an issue. It should be noted, that when both games start at differing times, most books will not allow you to fill in the next game later. You must designate both teams once you make the bet.
You possibly can make an "if" bet by saying to the bookmaker, "I would like to make an 'if' bet," and then, "Give me Team A IF Team B for $100." Giving your bookmaker that instruction will be the same as betting $110 to win $100 on Team A, and then, only if Team A wins, betting another $110 to win $100 on Team B.
If the first team in the "if" bet loses, there is no bet on the next team. No matter whether the next team wins of loses, your total loss on the "if" bet will be $110 once you lose on the first team. If the initial team wins, however, you'll have a bet of $110 to win $100 going on the second team. If so, if the next team loses, your total loss would be just the $10 of vig on the split of the two teams. If both games win, you would win $100 on Team A and $100 on Team B, for a total win of $200. Thus, the maximum loss on an "if" will be $110, and the maximum win would be $200. This is balanced by the disadvantage of losing the entire $110, rather than just $10 of vig, every time the teams split with the initial team in the bet losing.
As you can plainly see, it matters a good deal which game you put first within an "if" bet. If you put the loser first in a split, then you lose your full bet. If you split but the loser may be the second team in the bet, then you only lose the vig.
Bettors soon found that the way to steer clear of the uncertainty due to the order of wins and loses would be to make two "if" bets putting each team first. Instead of betting $110 on " Team A if Team B," you would bet just $55 on " Team A if Team B." and create a second "if" bet reversing the order of the teams for another $55. The next bet would put Team B first and Team Another. This sort of double bet, reversing the order of exactly the same two teams, is called an "if/reverse" or sometimes only a "reverse."
A "reverse" is two separate "if" bets:
Team A if Team B for $55 to win $50; and
Team B if Team A for $55 to win $50.
You don't need to state both bets. You only tell the clerk you would like to bet a "reverse," both teams, and the total amount.
If both teams win, the result would be the identical to if you played an individual "if" bet for $100. You win $50 on Team A in the initial "if bet, and then $50 on Team B, for a complete win of $100. In the second "if" bet, you win $50 on Team B, and $50 on Team A, for a total win of $100. The two "if" bets together create a total win of $200 when both teams win.
If both teams lose, the effect would also function as same as if you played a single "if" bet for $100. Team A's loss would set you back $55 in the first "if" combination, and nothing would look at Team B. In the next combination, Team B's loss would set you back $55 and nothing would go onto to Team A. You would lose $55 on each one of the bets for a complete maximum loss of $110 whenever both teams lose.
The difference occurs once the teams split. Rather than losing $110 once the first team loses and the second wins, and $10 once the first team wins however the second loses, in the reverse you will lose $60 on a split no matter which team wins and which loses. It computes in this manner. If Team A loses you will lose $55 on the first combination, and have nothing going on the winning Team B. In the second combination, you will win $50 on Team B, and also have action on Team A for a $55 loss, producing a net loss on the second combination of $5 vig. The increased loss of $55 on the initial "if" bet and $5 on the second "if" bet gives you a combined loss of $60 on the "reverse." When Team B loses, you'll lose the $5 vig on the first combination and the $55 on the second combination for the same $60 on the split..
We have accomplished this smaller loss of $60 instead of $110 once the first team loses without reduction in the win when both teams win. In both single $110 "if" bet and both reversed "if" bets for $55, the win is $200 when both teams cover the spread. The bookmakers could not put themselves at that sort of disadvantage, however. The gain of $50 whenever Team A loses is fully offset by the extra $50 loss ($60 instead of $10) whenever Team B may be the loser. Thus, the "reverse" doesn't actually save us any money, but it does have the advantage of making the chance more predictable, and preventing the worry concerning which team to put first in the "if" bet.
(What follows can be an advanced discussion of betting technique. If charts and explanations give you a headache, skip them and simply write down the rules. I'll summarize the rules in an an easy task to copy list in my next article.)
As with parlays, the general rule regarding "if" bets is:
DON'T, if you can win more than 52.5% or more of your games. If you fail to consistently achieve an absolute percentage, however, making "if" bets once you bet two teams will save you money.
For the winning bettor, the "if" bet adds an element of luck to your betting equation that doesn't belong there. If two games are worth betting, they should both be bet. Betting on one shouldn't be made dependent on whether or not you win another. On the other hand, for the bettor who has a negative expectation, the "if" bet will prevent him from betting on the next team whenever the first team loses. By preventing some bets, the "if" bet saves the negative expectation bettor some vig.
The $10 savings for the "if" bettor results from the fact that he could be not betting the second game when both lose. When compared to straight bettor, the "if" bettor comes with an additional expense of $100 when Team A loses and Team B wins, but he saves $110 when Team A and Team B both lose.
In summary, whatever keeps the loser from betting more games is good. "If" bets reduce the amount of games that the loser bets.
The rule for the winning bettor is exactly opposite. Anything that keeps the winning bettor from betting more games is bad, and therefore "if" bets will cost the winning handicapper money. When the winning bettor plays fewer games, he has fewer winners. Understand that next time someone tells you that the way to win would be to bet fewer games. A good winner never wants to bet fewer games. Since "if/reverses" work out exactly the same as "if" bets, they both place the winner at the same disadvantage.
Exceptions to the Rule - Whenever a Winner Should Bet Parlays and "IF's"
As with all rules, you can find exceptions. "If" bets and parlays ought to be made by a winner with a confident expectation in mere two circumstances::
If you find no other choice and he must bet either an "if/reverse," a parlay, or a teaser; or
When betting co-dependent propositions.
The only time I could think of you have no other choice is if you are the very best man at your friend's wedding, you are waiting to walk down the aisle, your laptop looked ridiculous in the pocket of one's tux and that means you left it in the car, you merely bet offshore in a deposit account with no credit line, the book has a $50 minimum phone bet, you like two games which overlap in time, you pull out your trusty cell five minutes before kickoff and 45 seconds before you need to walk to the alter with some beastly bride's maid in a frilly purple dress on your own arm, you try to make two $55 bets and suddenly realize you merely have $75 in your account.
Because the old philosopher used to say, "Is that what's troubling you, bucky?" If that's the case, hold your head up high, put a smile on your own face, look for the silver lining, and make a $50 "if" bet on your own two teams. Needless to say you could bet a parlay, but as you will notice below, the "if/reverse" is a wonderful substitute for the parlay should you be winner.
For the winner, the best method is straight betting. Regarding co-dependent bets, however, as already discussed, you will find a huge advantage to betting combinations. With a parlay, the bettor is getting the benefit of increased parlay odds of 13-5 on combined bets which have greater than the standard expectation of winning. Since, by definition, co-dependent bets should always be contained within the same game, they must be produced as "if" bets. With a co-dependent bet our advantage comes from the fact that we make the second bet only IF among the propositions wins.
It would do us no good to straight bet $110 each on the favorite and the underdog and $110 each on the over and the under. We'd simply lose the vig no matter how usually the favorite and over or the underdog and under combinations won. As we've seen, if we play two out of 4 possible results in two parlays of the favorite and over and the underdog and under, we can net a $160 win when among our combinations will come in. When to choose the parlay or the "reverse" when coming up with co-dependent combinations is discussed below.
Choosing Between "IF" Bets and Parlays
Based on a $110 parlay, which we'll use for the purpose of consistent comparisons, our net parlay win when one of our combinations hits is $176 (the $286 win on the winning parlay without the $110 loss on the losing parlay). In a $110 "reverse" bet our net win would be $180 every time among our combinations hits (the $400 win on the winning if/reverse without the $220 loss on the losing if/reverse).
Whenever a split occurs and the under comes in with the favorite, or higher will come in with the underdog, the parlay will eventually lose $110 while the reverse loses $120. Thus, the "reverse" has a $4 advantage on the winning side, and the parlay has a $10 advantage on the losing end. Obviously, again, in a 50-50 situation the parlay would be better.
With co-dependent side and total bets, however, we are not in a 50-50 situation. If the favourite covers the high spread, it really is much more likely that the game will go over the comparatively low total, and if the favorite fails to cover the high spread, it is more likely that the overall game will under the total. As we have already seen, once you have a confident expectation the "if/reverse" is a superior bet to the parlay. The specific probability of a win on our co-dependent side and total bets depends on how close the lines on the side and total are one to the other, but the fact that they're co-dependent gives us a confident expectation.
The point at which the "if/reverse" becomes a better bet than the parlay when coming up with our two co-dependent is a 72% win-rate. This is not as outrageous a win-rate as it sounds. When making two combinations, you have two chances to win. You merely need to win one from the two. Each of the combinations has an independent positive expectation. If we assume the opportunity of either the favourite or the underdog winning is 100% (obviously one or the other must win) then all we are in need of is really a 72% probability that when, for example, Boston College -38 � scores enough to win by 39 points that the overall game will go over the full total 53 � at least 72% of the time as a co-dependent bet. If Ball State scores even one TD, then we have been only � point from a win. A BC cover can lead to an over 72% of the time isn't an unreasonable assumption beneath the circumstances.
In comparison with a parlay at a 72% win-rate, our two "if/reverse" bets will win a supplementary $4 seventy-two times, for a complete increased win of $4 x 72 = $288. Betting "if/reverses" may cause us to lose a supplementary $10 the 28 times that the outcomes split for a total increased lack of $280. Obviously, at a win rate of 72% the difference is slight.
Rule: At win percentages below 72% use parlays, and at win-rates of 72% or above use "if/reverses."