The general rule regarding parlays is: DON'T.
Parlays generally carry an increased house edge than straight bets, which means you give the book a bigger advantage over you when you play them. That, alone, is reason enough to suppress the misplaced feelings of greed combined with fear that often result in betting parlays. People think they're risking less with parlays, but they are not. They believe they can win more with parlays, but they cannot. The bigger win with parlays is far outweighed by the higher possibility of losing. Parlay bettors are in fact risking more, with less probability of collecting.
A parlay is not a single bet. It really is two bets -- a one-unit bet on one team and a two-unit bet on another. Which team gets the two-unit bet? In point-spread betting at constant money odds, if both teams win or both teams lose it doesn't matter which team gets the double bet. When one team wins and something team loses, however, the double bet is presumed to have been on the loser. How smart is that for the bettor? Go ahead, make a parlay. We'll wait until both games are over, and in case there is a split we'll put the double bet on the loser. If your bookmaker sold you a parlay with that line, how many of you'll still make the bet?
A parlay can be bad money management. In a parlay you either bet double on the second team, or nothing on that same team, dependant on whether the first game won or lost. That adds an element of luck to your betting it doesn't need to be there. The skilled handicapper is always seeking to make smart investments. He tries to get rid of the result of luck to the greatest extent possible in order to make his results as predictable as possible.
As with every rule, however, you can find exceptions. The exception to the rule regarding parlays occurs once the two bets are co-dependent.
I knew one bookmaker who was simply taken for thousands because he didn't understand the co-dependency of certain bets. He allowed a player to consistently parlay the first half with the game. The ball player parlayed totals by combining the over in the first half with the over in the game, and the under in the initial half with under in the overall game. Both parlays were made in the same game. Each and every time the player won he'd win 2.6 times his bet. Betting $100 on each parlay, if one of these won, the player would win $260 and lose $100 on the other parlay for a net win of $160. He could never win both parlays. If he lost both parlays he would lose $200.
At first glance, this were a great chance for the book. The normal coin-flip probability of winning one parlay out of the two are 50-50. As far as the bookie was concerned the bettor ought to be winning $160 half enough time, and losing $200 half enough time. The bettor, however, making $500 parlays, was ahead more than $20,000 after six months, and the book begun to look at what the bettor was doing more carefully.
The problem for the bookmaker was that the two halves of every parlay were co-dependent. By the end of the initial half, the bettor was almost never in a 50-50 situation.
Take the Thursday night game between Utah and Air Force. The game total was 53 and the first half total was 27. At the end of the first half, the score was 31-21, for a complete of 52 first-half points. The first half of among the parlays, the "over" in the first half was successful. For the parlay probability to be correct, there should now be considered a 50-50 probability of winning the "over" for the overall game. Obviously the chances of winning the "over" in the game weren't 50-50 but better than 99% and only the "over." The player only had a need to win the first 1 / 2 of the parlay to be virtually assured that he would collect 2.6 times his money rather than just $10 for $11.
Before you rush out to use this, remember that most off-shore books are far too smart to allow you to parlay first half to game. If they do enable you to do this, start worrying about collecting because that book will soon be taken up to the cleaners.
There are, however, some less obvious co-dependent parlays that may still be made at many books. One kind of co-dependent parlay may be the parlay of the side and total in the same game.
Any game in which the total is significantly less than double the spread can give you an advantage in parlaying side to total in the same game. We've already discussed, in a prior article, how to use these anomalous side and total combinations to hedge each other and increase your win with hardly any increase in risk. Such a bet, however, required that you have an opinion privately or the total. Parlaying is another solution to boost your potential win on these games, or even to develop a potential win if you have no opinion.
You can find two games this Saturday that qualify. They are Virigina -25 over Duke with a complete of 48 �, and Kansas St. -24 � vs. North Texas with a complete 46 �).
In the Virginia game, if you believe that Virginia will cover the 25 points, then they must hold Duke to only 11 points or the overall game will go over the total. The more likely it becomes during the game that Virginia will cover 25 points, the much more likely it becomes that the overall game will go over 48 �. The wider Virginia's winning margin, the more likely the game will go over. If you want Virginia to cover the spread, and you believe that Duke will not be shut out, in that case your probability of winning a parlay on Virginia and the over are greater than the normal 25%. Likewise, if the scoring stays low, it really is not as likely that Virginia will cover the 25 points. Therefore, the probability a parlay of the under with the underdog will win is greater than the normal 25%.
Assuming Nhà cái Jun88 have no opinion on the game, you can parlay the favourite with the "over" and the underdog with the "under" and collect sufficiently often to exceed the losses when both parlays lose. In the only real other game meeting the qualifications this week -- Friday's game between California -30 against New Mexico State with a complete of 58 -- the under has already won with the underdog for an absolute two-parlay spread.
The closer the posted total is to the spread on the side, the better win-rate will be on the parlay "spread" bet. The co-dependency in side to total parlays isn't as strong as parlaying first half and game totals (if it were, most books would not allow such bets), but there is a sufficient co-dependency in the games with low totals and high spreads to help make the strategy profitable long-term.
Not all bookmakers will allow you to parlay the medial side to the full total in exactly the same game, because an increasing number of are realizing that these bets are occasionally co-dependent. But, enough books still do allow such bets that you should consider including such bets in your professional betting arsenal.
If your bookmaker provides "if/reverse" bets, you can replace the parlay bet with an "if/reverse" bet and achieve greater success.