The general rule regarding parlays is: DON'T.
Parlays generally carry a higher house edge than straight bets, which means you give the book a bigger advantage over you once you play them. That, alone, is reason enough to suppress the misplaced feelings of greed coupled with fear that often lead to betting parlays. People think they're risking less with parlays, however they aren't. They believe they can win more with parlays, however they cannot. The higher win with parlays is far outweighed by the bigger possibility of losing. Parlay bettors are in fact risking more, with less possibility of collecting.
A parlay is not an individual bet. It really is two bets -- a one-unit bet using one team and a two-unit bet on the other. Which team gets the two-unit bet? In point-spread betting at constant money odds, if both teams win or both teams lose it doesn't matter which team gets the double bet. When one team wins and one team loses, however, the double bet is presumed to have been on the loser. How smart is that for the bettor? Go ahead, create a parlay. We'll wait until both games are over, and in case there is a split we'll put the double bet on the loser. If your bookmaker sold you a parlay with that line, how many of you would still make the bet?
A parlay is also bad money management. In a parlay you either bet double on the next team, or nothing on that same team, dependant on whether the first game won or lost. That adds some luck to your betting that doesn't should be there. The skilled handicapper is definitely seeking to make smart investments. He tries to get rid of the result of luck to the best extent possible to make his results as predictable as possible.
Much like every rule, however, you can find exceptions. The exception to the rule regarding parlays occurs once the two bets are co-dependent.
I knew one bookmaker who was simply taken for thousands because he didn't understand the co-dependency of certain bets. He allowed a player to consistently parlay the first half with the game. The player parlayed totals by combining the over in the first half with the over in the overall game, and the under in the first half with under in the game. Both parlays were manufactured in the same game. Each time the player won he'd win 2.6 times his bet. Betting $100 on each parlay, if one of these won, the player would win $260 and lose $100 on another parlay for a net win of $160. He could never win both parlays. If he lost both parlays he would lose $200.
Initially, this were a great chance of the book. The normal coin-flip odds of winning one parlay out of your two are 50-50. As far as the bookie was concerned the bettor ought to be winning $160 half enough time, and losing $200 half the time. The bettor, however, making $500 parlays, was ahead more than $20,000 after 6 months, and the book began to look at what the bettor was doing more carefully.
The issue for the bookmaker was that the two halves of each parlay were co-dependent. By the end of the first half, the bettor was almost never in a 50-50 situation.
Take the Thursday night game between Utah and Air Force. The game total was 53 and the first half total was 27. At the end of the first half, the score was 31-21, for a complete of 52 first-half points. The initial half of among the parlays, the "over" in the initial half was successful. For link 78WIN to be correct, there should now be considered a 50-50 possibility of winning the "over" for the overall game. Obviously the chances of winning the "over" in the overall game weren't 50-50 but better than 99% in favor of the "over." The ball player only needed to win the first 1 / 2 of the parlay to be virtually assured he would collect 2.6 times his money instead of just $10 for $11.
Before you rush out to use this, remember that most off-shore books are much too smart to permit you to parlay first half to game. If they do enable you to do this, start worrying about collecting because that book will be taken to the cleaners.
You can find, however, some less obvious co-dependent parlays that may still be made at many books. One type of co-dependent parlay is the parlay of the side and total in the same game.
Any game in which the total is significantly less than double the spread can provide you an edge in parlaying side to total in exactly the same game. We've already discussed, in a prior article, how to use these anomalous side and total combinations to hedge each other and boost your win with very little increase in risk. This type of bet, however, required that you have an opinion on the side or the total. Parlaying is another solution to boost your potential win on these games, or to create a potential win assuming you have no opinion.
There are two games this Saturday that qualify. They are Virigina -25 over Duke with a total of 48 �, and Kansas St. -24 � vs. North Texas with a total 46 �).
In the Virginia game, if you were to think that Virginia covers the 25 points, they must hold Duke to no more than 11 points or the overall game will go over the full total. The much more likely it becomes through the game that Virginia will cover 25 points, the much more likely it becomes that the game will review 48 �. The wider Virginia's winning margin, the more likely the game will go over. If you want Virginia to cover the spread, and you believe that Duke will never be shut out, in that case your probability of winning a parlay on Virginia and the over are higher than the normal 25%. Likewise, if the scoring stays low, it really is not as likely that Virginia will cover the 25 points. As a result, the probability a parlay of the under with the underdog will win is higher than the normal 25%.
In case you have no opinion on the game, you can parlay the favorite with the "over" and the underdog with the "under" and collect sufficiently often to exceed the losses when both parlays lose. In the only other game meeting the qualifications this week -- Friday's game between California -30 against New Mexico State with a total of 58 -- the under has recently won with the underdog for an absolute two-parlay spread.
The closer the posted total would be to the spread privately, the better win-rate will undoubtedly be on the parlay "spread" bet. The co-dependency in side to total parlays is not as strong as parlaying first half and game totals (if it were, most books wouldn't normally allow such bets), but you will find a sufficient co-dependency in the games with low totals and high spreads to make the strategy profitable long-term.
Not all bookmakers will help you to parlay the medial side to the total in exactly the same game, because increasingly more are realizing that these bets are occasionally co-dependent. But, enough books still do allow such bets that you should consider including such bets in your professional betting arsenal.
If your bookmaker provides "if/reverse" bets, you can replace the parlay bet having an "if/reverse" bet and achieve greater success.