The general rule regarding parlays is: DON'T.
Parlays generally carry a higher house edge than straight bets, which means you give the book a more impressive advantage over you when you play them. That, by itself, is reason enough to suppress the misplaced feelings of greed combined with fear that often lead to betting parlays. People think they are risking less with parlays, however they aren't. They believe they can win more with parlays, but they cannot. The higher win with parlays is far outweighed by the higher possibility of losing. Parlay bettors are actually risking more, with less probability of collecting.
A parlay is not a single bet. It really is two bets -- a one-unit bet on one team and a two-unit bet on the other. Which team gets the two-unit bet? In point-spread betting at constant money odds, if both teams win or both teams lose no matter which team gets the double bet. When one team wins and one team loses, however, the double bet is presumed to possess been on the loser. How smart is that for the bettor? Go ahead, create a parlay. We'll wait until both games are over, and in case of a split we'll put the double bet on the loser. If your bookmaker sold you a parlay with that line, how many of you would still make the bet?
https://new88nc.net/ can be bad money management. In a parlay you either bet double on the next team, or nothing on that same team, dependant on whether the first game won or lost. That adds an element of luck to your betting that doesn't should be there. The skilled handicapper is always wanting to make smart investments. He tries to eliminate the effect of luck to the greatest extent possible to make his results as predictable as possible.
As with every rule, however, you can find exceptions. The exception to the rule regarding parlays occurs once the two bets are co-dependent.
I knew one bookmaker who was simply taken for thousands because he didn't understand the co-dependency of certain bets. He allowed a new player to consistently parlay the initial half with the overall game. The player parlayed totals by combining the over in the initial half with the over in the overall game, and the under in the initial half with under in the game. Both parlays were manufactured in the same game. Every time the player won he'd win 2.6 times his bet. Betting $100 on each parlay, if one of them won, the ball player would win $260 and lose $100 on another parlay for a net win of $160. He could never win both parlays. If he lost both parlays he'd lose $200.
At first glance, this appeared to be a great chance for the book. The normal coin-flip odds of winning one parlay out of the two are 50-50. As far as the bookie was concerned the bettor ought to be winning $160 half enough time, and losing $200 half the time. The bettor, however, making $500 parlays, was ahead more than $20,000 after six months, and the book started to look at what the bettor was doing more carefully.
The problem for the bookmaker was that the two halves of each parlay were co-dependent. At the end of the first half, the bettor was almost never in a 50-50 situation.
Take the Thursday night game between Utah and Air Force. The game total was 53 and the first half total was 27. By the end of the initial half, the score was 31-21, for a complete of 52 first-half points. The first half of one of many parlays, the "over" in the initial half was a winner. For the parlay probability to be correct, there should now be a 50-50 probability of winning the "over" for the overall game. Obviously the odds of winning the "over" in the overall game were not 50-50 but better than 99% in favor of the "over." The ball player only had a need to win the first half of the parlay to be virtually assured that he would collect 2.6 times his money rather than just $10 for $11.
Before you rush out to try this, be aware that most off-shore books are far too smart to permit you to parlay first half to game. If they do permit you to do this, start worrying about collecting because that book will soon be taken up to the cleaners.
You can find, however, some less obvious co-dependent parlays that can be made at many books. One type of co-dependent parlay may be the parlay of the medial side and total in the same game.
Any game in which the total is significantly less than double the spread can provide you an advantage in parlaying side to total in the same game. We've already discussed, in a prior article, how to use these anomalous side and total combinations to hedge each other and boost your win with very little increase in risk. This type of bet, however, required that you have an opinion on the side or the full total. Parlaying is another solution to boost your potential win on these games, or even to develop a potential win assuming you have no opinion.
You can find two games this Saturday that qualify. They're Virigina -25 over Duke with a complete of 48 �, and Kansas St. -24 � vs. North Texas with a total 46 �).
In the Virginia game, if you were to think that Virginia covers the 25 points, they must hold Duke to no more than 11 points or the game will go over the total. The much more likely it becomes during the game that Virginia will cover 25 points, the more likely it becomes that the overall game will review 48 �. The wider Virginia's winning margin, the much more likely the game will review. If you like Virginia to cover the spread, and you also believe that Duke will not be shut out, in that case your possibility of winning a parlay on Virginia and the over are greater than the standard 25%. Likewise, if the scoring stays low, it is less likely that Virginia covers the 25 points. Due to this fact, the probability that a parlay of the under with the underdog will win is higher than the normal 25%.
Assuming you have no opinion on the overall game, you can parlay the favourite with the "over" and the underdog with the "under" and collect sufficiently often to exceed the losses when both parlays lose. In the only real other game meeting the qualifications this week -- Friday's game between California -30 against New Mexico State with a total of 58 -- the under has recently won with the underdog for a winning two-parlay spread.
The closer the posted total would be to the spread privately, the better win-rate will be on the parlay "spread" bet. The co-dependency in side to total parlays is not as strong as parlaying first half and game totals (if it were, most books wouldn't normally allow such bets), but there is a sufficient co-dependency in the games with low totals and high spreads to help make the strategy profitable long-term.
Not all bookmakers will help you to parlay the side to the full total in exactly the same game, because progressively more are realizing that these bets are occasionally co-dependent. But, enough books still do allow such bets that you can consider including such bets in your professional betting arsenal.
If your bookmaker provides "if/reverse" bets, it is possible to replace the parlay bet having an "if/reverse" bet and achieve greater success.